The book begins with an analysis of the factors that led to. Stimsons south asia program includes prescriptive analysis, fieldwork, outreach to decisionmakers and civil society, washington meetings, workshops within the region cosponsored by local partners, visiting fellowships. Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its robustness. Pdf nucleararmed adversaries india and pakistan have fought three wars since their creation as sovereign states in 1947. The goal of nuclear disarmament is certainly a worthy one pakistan and india should not. In fact, south asian nuclear politics is driven by international nuclear politics. Inside nuclear south asia 1 the causes of nuclear proliferation in south asia 23 1.
South asia and the nuclear future rethinking the causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation conference report by todd s. China has problem both with the us and russia and it will disarm if these countries disarm. India and the g trade and geopolitical engagements, in anwar alam ed. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the.
And so vipin will lead off and then moeed will come in and. South asia is a realm of one of the oldest civilizations in the world where people from all races and religions have coexisted over a long period of time. Nuclear war in south asia summary structural political and security factors generate persistent security competition on the south asian subcontinent. South asia has a population of nearly two billion people. The second prepcom following the indefinite extension of the nonproliferation treaty in 1995 had just taken place in geneva and had failed to achieve. Topychkanov previously taught courses on the modern history of south asian.
Covid19 and competition for influence in south asia the. Instead of arguing that nuclear weapons were closely linked to nuclear technology, and the latter must be controlled. Well, i guess by that, michael would have to go first. In the contributors view, it is fallacio us to claim that mor e nuclear weapons are. The conflict between india and pakistan may be the most serious and imminent danger to the south asian region and humanity over the. On the sikh insurgency, see paul wallace, political violence and terrorism in india. The nuclearization of south asia had been anticipated for decades, yet when it came, it was a surprise. Introduction the 1998 nuclear tests by india and pakistan dramatically worsened the security situation for over a billion people in the subcontinent. Reducing nuclear risks in south asia the stimson center. India and the middle east and north africa mena region.
Implications of nuclear proliferation in south asia on the strategic environment of the middle east, journal of south asian and middle eastern studies, 25. More is written on nuclear south asia than on the dangers in the korean peninsula and middle east. South asias lessons, evolving dynamics, and trajectories. This layering of different cultures has given it a unique identity that is unparalleled anywhere else in the world. Although pakistan is a nuclear power and has the secondhighest nominal gdp in south asia, the literacy rate is only 58 percent. Michael krepon, the myth of deterrence stability between nuclear armed rivals, in deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia, ed. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. Pakistani nuclear declaratory statements are clear that india is regarded as its sole nuclear adversary and thus the focus of its nuclear deterrent.
Nuclear south asia, by major gulraiz afzal khan, 65 pages. May 25, 2017 travis wheeler and gillian gayner present stimsons open online course. Nato nuclear sharing, and eventually the idea of a multilateral nuclear force mlf, in europe in the late 50s seem to be emerging in asia today. The appellations south asia and the indian subcontinent are synonymous. In may 1998, india conducted a nuclear test that did little to advance the countrys longstanding nuclear weapons program but did advertise its existence to the world. Sechser on june 4 and 5, 2004, the center for international security and cooperation cisac at stanford university hosted a workshop on the question of nuclear weapons and stability in south asia. I argue that in south asia, limited war suffers a debilitating tension.
Implications for the future of nuclear arms control 51 figure 3. Strategic weapons behavior in south asia in scott d. Nuclear weapons in south asia have both precipitated one limited war kargil 1999 and prevented another the 200102 crisis. Inthewakeofthe2019indiapakistan pulwama militarized crisis, each book focuses on a distinct element of the southern. In may 1998, india conducted a nuclear test that did. Books, articles, seminars, opeds and blogs on south asias real and imagined nuclear dangers and risk. Assessing threats and priorities in nuclear south asia. Holocaust or hollow victory limited war in nuclear south asia 2 my aim is to assess the strategic value of limited war as a policy option its effect on indian security rather than its political or moral implications. This competition in turn creates a small but difficulttoclose window for nuclear catastrophe. South asia s nuclear postures and south asian stability, international security 34, no. A nuclear weapons free south asia is only possible in nuclear weapons free world.
South african who attacked a nuclear plant is a hero to his government. Ramana it is easy to see that in certain circumstances aid given by the international atomic energy agency with its full safeguards system in operation could help in accelerating a military programme. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. Zafar khan argues that the introduction of nuclear weapons in south asia has successfully decreased the likelihood of largescale war between india and pakistan, as shown during the 1999 kargil conflict, the 2008 mumbai crisis, and the 2016 uri, pathankot, and nagrota attacks. The implications of south asia s nuclear tests 3 2. However unlikely, deployment of tactical nuclear weapons can open the door to inadvertent. This study investigates the military stability of south asia, after overt display of nuclear explosions by pakistan and india in may 1998. This kind of nuclear force posturing or semideployment of nuclear weapons, especially in the environs of south asia where there is an excess of heat, dust, poor infrastructure, and the close prox. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons in south asia and the potential consequences of nuclear proliferation on the subcontinent. Although the term minimum rapidly became a fixture of the public nuclear discourse in south asia, neither india nor pakistan officially clarified what the term minimum means, leaving this. Public opinion, democratic governance and the making of 53 pakistani nuclear policy samina ahmed i. It includes video interviews with more than 80 leading practitioners and scholars from india, pakistan, and the united states, including former senior diplomats and. Countries at moscow state universitys institute of asian and african studies 2006. The central claim of inside nuclear south asia is that the nuclear pessimists are right.
The 1998 nuclear tests by india and pakistan dramatically worsened the secur ity situation for. South asia who promoted nuclear weapons in the two countries with the promise of. India and pakistan have long dominated attention as the largest countries in the region and as nuclear. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bomb provides the emerging generation of strategic analysts in india, pakistan, and elsewhere a platform to study nuclear competition and dangers on the subcontinent. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. To reach the targets, scores of missiles flew long distances over pakistan.
These include the pursuit of ballistic missile defense bmd systems, multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles mirvs, and counterforce targeting strategies. Complete the intro survey before beginning the course. These chapters show that the presence of nuclear weapons in south asia has increased the frequency and propensity of lowlevel violence, further destabilizing the region. Views on nuclear risks in south asia there is a rich and varied output in strategic and security writings on nuclear south asia. Speculations on the f uture of nuclear s outh a sia pervez hoodbhoy and zia mian the future of nuclear south asia is inextricably linked to power and politics in pakistan and india and to the global nuclear order. This briefing book contains material from the national security archives project on u. Jun 15, 2015 the nuclear optimists, as believers in the deterrence capabilities of nuclear arsenal, do not credit the u. Crisis management in nuclear south asia a pakistani perspective zafar khan crisis management is the process by which potential escalation toward major military confrontation is controlled, but this management does not necessarily resolve initial provocations or their underlying sources of tension. Grise scholars have debated at length the external consequences of pakistans decision to embark on a program of nuclear weapons development in shifting the balance of power in south asia. Nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. Waltz, 2nd edition, revised with a new chapters and sections on india and pakistan, terrorism, and national missile defense, w. South asia nuclear strategic issues, but they cover a much wider range of issues as well.
As far as india is concerned, it will do so if china disarms itself from nuclear weapons. The quest for nuclear disarmament in south asia united states. Americas tortured relationship with islamabad offers a comprehensive analysis of the tragic and often tormented relationship between the united states and pakistan. Use adobe acrobat reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. According to sameer lalwani, growing nuclear tensions, failures in diplomacy, and potential crises between india and pakistan make studying nuclear issues in south asia one of todays most important subjects. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations. Within this region it is possible to study great power rivalries, irredentist conflicts, nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation, secessionist movements, ethnoreligious conflicts, and interstate wars. Modernize the south asia nuclear facility nonattack agreement toby dalton introduction on january 1, 2017, indian and pakistani diplomats exchanged official lists of the nuclear facilities located in their respective countries. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. Nuclear systems are in a dangerous state of constant transition from varying levels of deployment. Few regions of the world are fraught with as many security questions as asia. Though pakistan is a factor in indias nuclear strategy, it is china. Nucleararmed adversaries india and pakistan have fought three wars since their creation as sovereign states in 1947.
South asia s lessons, evolving dynamics, and trajectories. For instance, in august 1998 the united states launched a major cruise missile attack against afghanistan from its ships in the arabian sea. Work addressed the problem of nuclear winter, the climatic effects of nuclear war, and demonstrating longterm several year effects with a computer model. Benoit pelopidas may 3, 2016 project on a stable transition. The development and application of new technologies will introduce both risks and opportunities, and the us economy will be challenged by slower global economic growth and growing threats to us economic competitiveness. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia. Nuclear weapons and strategic security in south asia. Nicolas asfouriafpgetty images the following is the text of an address at asia society new york on december 5, 2018.
Countries in south asia are especially vulnerable because of their high population density and insufficient government resources. He researches and writes on nuclear weapons and nuclear power issues in south asia and global disarmament. Proceed through the chapters without skipping any content. Travis wheeler and gillian gayner present stimsons open online course. Nuclear facility attack database nufad sources march, 2016.
A guide to india, pakistan, and the ombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives on india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its. It includes video interviews with more than 80 leading practitioners and scholars from india, pakistan, and the united states, including former senior diplomats and military officers. Highvacuum pyrolysis of zroepdpa as a route to novel zr species. Inside nuclear south asia, 2009 online research library. Paul kapur, revisionist ambitions, conventional capabilities and nuclear instability. During the gestation period of covert development of their nuclear weapons, india and pakistan underwent a series of military crises. President donald trump and chinas president xi jinping attend a business leaders event inside the great hall of the people in beijing on november 9, 2017. Nuclear south asia, its structure, and its objectives see about the ourse. The two countries have been loggerhead on kashmir dispute since their inception in 1948. Additionally, nuclear weapons in india and pakistan have led to serious political changes that also challenge the ability of the two states. And were going to go in order of possession of nuclear weapons. There is some evidence that early warning systems in south asia are limited in their scope and capabilities. Proceed through the chapters sequentially without skipping any content.
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